Another Year, Another Set of Nominations for the Best and the Worst ...

By Stuart Rothenberg

It’s another year down the drain, so I’m sure all Roll Call readers are clamoring for another one of those best/worst, winners/losers columns. Well, clamoring may be a little too strong.

Anyway, though 2009 wasn’t a major election year, there were a few races and plenty of politics, so here goes ...

Best Campaign

The nominees:

• Rep. Scott Murphy (D-N.Y.)
• Rep. Bill Owens (D-N.Y.)
• Virginia Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell (R)
• Accenture’s Tiger Woods ad campaign

Both New York Democratic campaigns deserve plenty of credit, given the competitive nature of their districts, but McDonnell’s effort was remarkable, especially given recent GOP struggles in Virginia. McDonnell stayed focused on jobs and transportation, never allowing himself to get drawn into a lengthy battle over cultural issues. Looks like a clear win in this category for the Virginian.

Most Exciting Sports-Related Candidate Entering 2010

The nominees:

• Former NFL player Jay Riemersma (R)in Michigan
• Columbus Destroyers (Arena Football League) co-owner Jim Renacci (R) in Ohio
• Former Iowa State University wrestling coach Jim Gibbons (R) in Iowa
• World Wrestling Entertainment co-owner Linda McMahon (R) in Connecticut
• Wichita Wild (Indoor Football League) owner Wink Hartman (R) in Kansas
• San Diego Chargers offensive tackle Jon Runyan (R) in New Jersey
• Tiger Woods

Actually, Tiger Woods isn’t running for anything but cover. Indoor football is a made-up game and therefore doesn’t qualify as a sport, while pro wrestling is scripted entertainment, not sports. That leaves a college wrestler/coach and two professional football players worthy of consideration.

College wrestling is a big deal in Iowa, and Gibbons was head wrestling coach at Iowa State University for seven years. His team won the NCAA championship in 1987. During his undergraduate days, Gibbons was a three-time All-American. He won the NCAA championship in his weight class in 1981.

Riemersma played football at Michigan and was drafted by the Buffalo Bills in the 7th round of the 1996 NFL draft. A tight end, he played six years for the Bills and two for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Runyan, also a product of the University of Michigan, was drafted by the Houston Oilers in the fourth round of the 1996 NFL draft. He played with the Oilers (who later became the Tennessee Titans) until he was signed as an unrestricted free agent by the Philadelphia Eagles in 2000. He was selected to the Pro Bowl in 2002.

Riemersma and Runyan played on the same college team and were in the same NFL draft, with the tight end going as the 244th pick and the offensive tackle being taken with the 109th pick. It isn’t close between the two pro football veterans; Runyan gets the nod between the two of them.

So is Runyan the most exciting sports-related candidate of 2010, or is it Gibbons? It’s a close call, but my winner is Runyan, mostly because the 6-foot-7, 330-pound lineman is still active, and I’ve watched Runyan on TV over the years.

Most Embarrassing Political Story

The nominees:

• South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford (R), straying
• Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.), straying
• Former Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.), the ongoing saga
• Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-N.Y.), finances
• Tiger Woods, straying

I’m going to have to go with Sanford on this one, since it was so, so bizarre. Hiking on the Appalachian Trail? Argentina?

Most Over-Covered Story

The nominees:

• Sarah Palin, the book tour
• Nadya Suleman and her octuplets
• Oprah’s “retirement” two years from now
• Tiger Woods, straying
• Michael Jackson, R.I.P.
• “Jon & Kate Plus 8,” the saga continues

Any of these would be good choices as the most over-covered story of the year. I’m going for Michael Jackson, I think, because of the sheer magnitude of the coverage and the late performer’s rather odd life choices.

The Worst Campaign

The nominees:

• Virginia gubernatorial loser Creigh Deeds (D)
• Congressional loser Dede Scozzafava (R — sort of) in New York
• Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi (D) in New York
• Congressional loser Jim Tedisco (R) in New York
• Accenture’s Tiger Woods ad campaign

Tedisco and Deeds were unimpressive, but nothing compared to Scozzafava, who couldn’t raise any money and ultimately dropped out of the race. But as bad a fit as Scozzafava was for 23rd district Republicans, she was easily outpaced in my mind by Suozzi, a one-time rising star in New York Democratic politics, who lost re-election by 386 votes yet ended the race with a little more than $2 million in the bank. It’s hard to believe that spending even some of that leftover cash couldn’t have gotten Suozzi enough votes to win.

The Worst Decision

The nominees:

• New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D) runs for re-election
• Phillies manager Charlie Manuel doesn’t start Cliff Lee in Game 4 of the World Series
• Republican County chairmen nominate Dede Scozzafava in the special election in New York’s 23rd district
• Kanye West disses Taylor Swift at the MTV Video Music Awards
• Roll Call continues to publish Rothenberg columns throughout the year

Thank goodness Scozzafava is nominated or else I might have to vote against myself.

This column first appeared in Roll Call on December 17, 2009. 2009 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

The 2010 Elections Are Closer Than You May Think

By Stuart Rothenberg

For political junkies everywhere, and particularly for those who like reading electoral tea leaves, the midterm elections start in less than a month — Jan. 19, to be exact, when the special election in Massachusetts to fill the late Sen. Edward Kennedy’s (D) seat will take place.

While even the thought that state Sen. Scott Brown (R) might upset state Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) is probably too much for anyone to consider, true political junkies will be keeping their eyes on Coakley’s margin.

Does Coakley pile up a “normal” win, or does Brown do better than expected? Given Democratic problems last month in Virginia and New Jersey, a disappointing showing by Coakley, even if she were to win the election, would certainly set off another round of Democratic grumbling and media tongue-wagging.

Over the past decade, Democratic nominees for president have been carrying Massachusetts with about 60 percent of the vote, while no Republican has come close to the 40 percent mark since President George H.W. Bush drew more than 45 percent of the total vote against then-Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis in 1988.

Last year, for example, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) drew 36 percent against then-Sen. Barack Obama (D), about the same showing that President George W. Bush had against Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in 2004.

Democratic Senate candidates have also been rolling up big numbers for years. The last GOP Senate nominee to draw at least 40 percent of the vote in the state was former Gov. William Weld, who drew 45 percent against Kerry in 1996.

If Brown can crack the 40 percent mark against Coakley, it would be noteworthy.

In February, Illinois voters will head to the polls to nominate a slew of candidates.

Democratic strategists have been arguing that Republican primaries — and particularly the ideological split within the GOP — will severely hurt Republican prospects in the midterm contests. But a solid win in his party’s Senate primary by Rep. Mark Kirk (R) could undermine that Democratic message.

Attorney Patrick Hughes, a first-time candidate, is generally regarded as Kirk’s main challenger from the right, since he has been endorsed by Eagle Forum founder Phyllis Schlafly, the Joliet Tax Day Tea Party and a long list of “movement conservatives.”

Through Sept. 30, however, Hughes had raised less than $129,000 from individuals and political action committees (plus put in $250,000 of his own), far less than Kirk’s $2.9 million raised at the same point.

If Kirk wins convincingly, he can undercut the Democratic argument. But if Hughes gets uncomfortably close to the Republican Congressman, his showing will both provide further talking points to Democrats and embolden conservative insurgents who care more about making a statement than winning an election.

The Democratic Senate race is also worth watching. State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias is the clear favorite for the Democratic nomination, but he faces two primary opponents, former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman and former Chicago Urban League President Cheryle Robinson Jackson. How the three place — and how well the state treasurer does in the balloting — will affect how the general election is viewed.

Of course, observers are certain to compare the relative showings of Kirk and Giannoulias in their respective primaries.

Primaries in two Illinois Congressional districts are also worth watching.

In the open-seat contest to succeed Kirk, Republican voters will choose from two wealthy conservative businessmen, Dick Green and Bob Dold, and state Rep. Beth Coulson, who is much more in the Kirk mold. Democrats will select either state Rep. Julie Hamos or Dan Seals, who made credible but unsuccessful races against Kirk in 2006 and 2008.

In the state’s 14th district, Republicans must choose a nominee to take on Rep. Bill Foster (D). Ethan Hastert, son of the former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R), faces state Sen. Randy Hultgren for the GOP nomination.

Foster narrowly defeated businessman/investment guru Jim Oberweis in a 2008 special to replace Dennis Hastert, and later that same year he polished off Oberweis again, though more comfortably. Now, with the national mood having shifted and Republicans likely to be more united behind their 2010 nominee than they were behind Oberweis, Foster is likely to face a more difficult challenge.

Finally, early March brings the Texas primaries, and all eyes are sure to be on the Republican battle for governor. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) is challenging Gov. Rick Perry (R), and while she began her bid with strong personal ratings and upbeat poll numbers, her prospects now look more uncertain.

Democrats hope that the bitter GOP primary will give their likely nominee, outgoing Houston Mayor Bill White, a shot to win a high-profile statewide office for the first time since 1990, when Democrat Ann Richards beat Republican Clayton Williams to become the state’s last Democratic governor. No Democrat has won a U.S. Senate, gubernatorial or presidential election in the Lone Star State since then.

This column first appeared in Roll Call on December 21, 2009. 2009 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved.

New Print Edition: 2010 House Overview

The December 18, 2009 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers.

The print edition of the Report comes out every two weeks. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as updated House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races nationwide. To subscribe, simply click on the Google checkout button on the website or send a check.

Here is a brief excerpt from this edition:

House Outlook for 2010

As we noted three months ago, this cycle now looks like a typical midterm election, with the majority party (in this case the Democrats) trying to localize elections by beating up their Republican opponents, and the out-party (in this case the GOP) trying to ride a wave of change and dissatisfaction – and seeking to have voters “send a message” to President Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Substantial Republican gains now look almost inevitable, with net Democratic losses likely to exceed a dozen. While Democratic control of the House is not yet at risk, losses of 15-20 seats are likely, and that target range could well grow with additional Democratic retirements and voter anger.

Subscribers get the rest of the overview and a state-by-state look at the candidates in the most competitive House races.

Stu on the GOP's Tactics on Healthcare

The GOP's stalling tactics on the health care bill are Politics 101. You can watch the video below or by clicking this link to the CBS web site.


Watch CBS News Videos Online

What a Difference a Year Makes: the 2010 Senate Outlook

By Stuart Rothenberg

As “Saturday Night Live” character Emily Litella (played by the late Gilda Radner) would say, “Never mind.”

Eleven months ago, still in the shadow of Barack Obama’s presidential victory over Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), Democrats looked likely to gain anywhere from two to as many as five additional Senate seats.

Sen. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.) was in trouble, while GOP open seats in Florida and Missouri were clearly at risk. Doubts about the prospects of at least four other Republican incumbents — North Carolina’s Richard Burr, New Hampshire’s Judd Gregg, Louisiana’s David Vitter and Pennsylvania’s Arlen Specter (who has since switched parties) — ranged from uncertain to unsettling for party strategists. And that was before Sen. George Voinovich (R-Ohio) announced he would not run again.

But since then, GOP recruiting successes and a change in the national political environment have shifted the outlook for next year’s Senate contests. Suddenly, Democratic seats started to look more and more vulnerable.

As 2009 draws to a close, Democrats now could lose seats, a dramatic change from January that could end the party’s 60-seat majority in less than two years. And GOP gains could be large enough to sink any major Democratic initiatives not passed before Congress adjourns for the midterm elections.

The national Republican brand shows no signs of improving dramatically, but polling conducted in a number of the states with Senate contests next year shows GOP candidates doing better in hypothetical matchups recently than they were a few months earlier.

In Arkansas, for example, a Nov. 30-Dec. 2 Research 2000 poll for Daily Kos (D) showed Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) with a single point advantage over state Sen. Gilbert Baker, the apparent favorite for the GOP nomination. In early September, Lincoln had a much more substantial 44 percent to 37 percent advantage over Baker in another Daily Kos survey.

In Connecticut, a Nov. 3-8 Quinnipiac University poll showed former Rep. Rob Simmons, one of two serious contenders for the Republican Senate nomination, leading Sen. Chris Dodd (D) by 11 points, a larger lead than Simmons had in September (5 points), in July (9 points) or in May (6 points).

In New Hampshire, a Sept. 25-Oct. 2 University of New Hampshire survey found former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, probably the favorite for the GOP Senate nomination, leading Rep. Paul Hodes (D) by 7 points (40 percent to 33 percent), while a June 24-July 1 UNH poll had Ayotte up by 4 points, 39 percent to 35 percent.

In Ohio, a Nov. 5-9 Quinnipiac poll found former Rep. Rob Portman (R) leading Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) 39 percent to 36 percent in a very competitive Senate trial heat pitting the two primary frontrunners against each other. In a Jan. 29-Feb. 2 Quinnipiac survey, Fisher held a commanding 42 percent to 27 percent advantage over Portman.

You can certainly quibble with any of these surveys or note that in some cases the movement is small, but the trend appears to be clear.

Other races, where there hasn’t been such movement, remain tight, with the race a statistical dead heat (in Missouri, for example), or with the Republican nominee holding a narrow advantage in most polling (including Kentucky, North Carolina, Illinois and Louisiana).

And in some contests, where there hasn’t been enough independent polling (or the same ballot tests repeated over time), Republicans look to be in much better shape than they ever could have hoped. Colorado is a good example, as is Pennsylvania.

Delaware remains an excellent GOP opportunity, and until Attorney General Beau Biden (D) actually announces that he will take on Rep. Mike Castle (R) in the open-seat Senate race, Democrats have to be at least a wee bit nervous.

Finally, I am struck how much Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s (D-Nev.) ballot test numbers resemble those of former Sens. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) and John Sununu (R-N.H.), as well as soon-to-be-former New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D). All three, of course, lost re-election bids.

Since a late July GOP poll, Reid has not exceeded 43 percent in a ballot test against a potential opponent, and he has generally drawn around 41 percent of the vote against his two most likely Republican challengers. His last lead was in a late November 2008 Daily Kos poll in which he had a 46 percent to 40 percent advantage over former Rep. Jon Porter (R), who has since taken himself out of consideration.

The overall shift in the psychology of the cycle may keep Democrats on the defensive and help Republican fundraising. And GOP nominees could well benefit from the fact that late tossups often break to one party, not evenly between the two parties.

A little more than four months ago, I wrote in this space (“Sizing Up the 2010 Senate Contests in the Summer of 2009,” Aug. 3) that for the first time this year I could “imagine a scenario where Democrats do not gain seats in 2010.” That has changed again, so that Republican Senate gains are now looking likely.

This column first appeared in Roll Call on December 14, 2009. 2009 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved.